CI, Episode 2.14
Production number: E3218
First aired: 16 February 2003
  th of 195 produced in CI  
th of 195 released in CI
  th of 1229 released in all  
Eames Probability
Teleplay By
Gerry Conway

Story By
Gerry Conway & René Balcer

Directed By
Frank Prinzi

Detectives Goren and Eames are called in to investigate the mysterious murders of several homeless men.




Main cast

Recurring cast

Guest cast



Leo Gergis: Oh, hey. Thought I got the address wrong. Sorry to have to bother you.
Jack Bernard: That makes two of us. (pulls out a 2x4 and swings...)

Someone's killing the great bums of New York.

–Alexandra Eames

Robert Goren: Thank you, Mr. Stevens.
(Wally stops dead in his tracks, looks around nervously, then leaves without saying a word)
Alexandra Eames: (smiles at Goren) I didn't know you had an older, geekier brother.

Wally Stevens: She probably took the money. Women like money.
Robert Goren: So do men.
Wally Stevens: That's because women like men with money.

If I look at someone for 2/3 of the time, I appear aggressive. But if I look at them for less than 1/3 of time, I seem dishonest...

–Wally Stevens

Ron Carver: It's very visual. Juries love visuals. I wish we could show them the $14 million in Stevens' possession, or anything beyond these abstractions.
Robert Goren: Does Weehawken sound abstract to you?

Robert Goren: No matter how hard you strive for chaos, it... always... ends up... looking... like... this. (makes "1-2-3-4-5" gesture with his fingers)
Wally Stevens: (horrified, bewildered) You... you can't connect me to this.

James Deakins: Criminal mastermind.... They don't make them like they used to.
(Deakins exits, and Goren is still looking at Wally)
Alexandra Eames: I'm sure he'd like a pen pal.

Background information and notes

  • The episode title "Probability" is a reference to the actuarial theme of the episode. The mastermind would select manner and location of death, as well as other details about them, in a seemingly random pattern in order to prevent detection by actuarial algorithms or law enforcement. However, Goren is quick to notice that the "pattern" is too random, and when he investigates further he discovers that the mastermind, who has Asperger's Syndrome, is obsessed with groupings of 5 in a specific configuration. Goren finds a hidden pattern in the order in time and location of the murders, thus solving the case.
  • Wally Stevens, the name of the insurance-fraud investigator character, is an inside joke: The name is taken from Wallace Stevens, the Pulitzer Prize-winning poet who also worked as vice president of The Hartford Accident and Indemnity Company. The Hartford is a Fortune 100 company and one of America’s largest investment and insurance companies.
  • Wally Stevens later appears in the episode "Endgame" where it is shown that Goren used his influence to arrange for Stevens to serve his time in a prison in Pennsylvania that is closer to his family.

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